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Rhetoretician -- Fiction etc.

Electoral Map of October 16

Electoral Map of October 16

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Today's electoral map, using the nifty new shape.  It doesn't reflect any results of the last debate.

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Not much change, really.  Missouri and West Virginia have moved from "Dead Even" to "Lean Obama."  Indiana has moved from "Lean McCain" to "Probable McCain."  North Dakota has moved from "Definite McCain" to "Probable McCain."

Notice that the yellow (tie) and peach (Lean McCain) colors are now completely missing.

I have noted that, in states that aren't changing color, margins have narrowed somewhat.  The states in which Obama leads by 9 or more points (the dark blue) total 245 electoral votes, and the "Probable Obama" (where he leads by 4-8 points) total 41.  As it stands right now, he could win even if he lost both Ohio and Florida.

But again, 19 days can be a long time in electoral politics.
 
  • Wow..it's getting close. Only 19 more days. No matter what happens, it's going to be strange without Bush & Cheney. They've been there for so long, it feels like they've grown into the wall paper or something. LOL...

    The inauguration will by like house cleaning.

    • Here's the missing blot on the wallpaper for me: no Karl Rove.

      Aw.
      • Karl Rove was the source of much of the sickness that's plaguing the McCain campaign right now. Republicans got it into their heads that Rovian tactics were the best way to go: paint your opponent as an enemy; throw every accusation possible, no matter how unlikely, against them to see what sticks; and push poll blatant lies.

        I really thought McCain would be better than that, after having it done to him in 2000, but apparently the Republican desire for power outweighs honor and common sense. He hired the guy who orchestrated the "black baby" push poll in South Carolina onto his campaign staff! When you're down in polls, losing states that should be Republican locks, losing every debate by a large margin of opinion, being called out by the media for how hateful your rallies have become, and all you can do is think of more ways to do the exact same thing? That's Rovian logic right there, taken to its absurd conclusion.

        I want Rove to stand accountable (and Bush and Cheney too) for all the things that have happened in the past eight years, but I know that's a pipe dream and they'll all die old and happy in their beds surrounded by their loved ones instead of in prison where they belong (no I'm not bitter, why do you ask?).
        • Hey, Val.

          I won't defend it, but I think McCain is in a very weird, nearly impossible position. There are basically two ways to win a national election: Sway the swing voters or energize the base. It's usually not possible to do both at once, especially for Republicans. In the current economic climate and given Bush's unpopularity, swaying swing voters is nearly impossible -- if anyone could do it, McCain could. So he's left with trying to increase turnout among the base, the right wing of the party.

          That's what the Palin nomination was all about. I knew he was going to name a female running mate, but I thought (feared) that it would be someone moderate and credible, like Elizabeth Dole (with her two cabinet positions and her swing-state representation) or Olympia Snow (with her well known moderate stances and her popularity in the Northeast). But another moderate (especially a pro-choice moderate) would have been the last straw for the Christian Right, who don't like McCain much to start with.

          I feel sorry for him, actually. He's a good guy. If the Republicans had nominated him instead of Bush in 2000, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in now.
        • True, though, as I said to Ken, the Rovian mix of ad homimen attacks and back-alley fear-mongering has been a major part of the Republican arsenal for thirty years. He was the great artist of the school, but by no means the only one.
      • I don't like Karl either, but I don't think that metaphor really works.
        • No. Probably not.

          And of course, the politics of division goes back far further than Rove. He was just a master of it. I'd like to see an election that doesn't descend into attempts to demonize the opponent, but it isn't going to happen any time soon. And in all honesty, as much as I feel a bit badly for McCain personally, it's nice to see the RNC paying a price for their reliance over the past thirty years on the ad homimen attack as their campaign tactic of choice.
    • Hi Rachel. Yeah, a new administration (especially after eight years) always seems like housecleaning.
  • Hi Rhetoretician,
    I just wanted to let you know that I enjoyed your map. I got here via a friends of friends list, because I'm surprised my flist hasn't been talking about the election... I'm engrossed. Anyway, I like to let people know when I've read their page. : ) Hope you don't mind.
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