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Rhetoretician -- Fiction etc.

Electoral Map of October 30

Electoral Map of October 30

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Cicero
Electoral map, cartogram, whatever, with the nifty new shape:

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States that have moved in McCain's direction (visibly, that is, with a color change): IN, MO, OH, SD, WV.

States that have moved in Obama's direction (again, with color change):  AZ (??), GA, NV, NH, NM.

Note that some of these moves are reversals of moves we saw last week.

I still think that the crescent from North Carolina to Indiana is going to decide the election.  Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, says that an Obama win of, say, North Carolina probably means that McCain is finished, whereas a McCain win of Pennsylvania probably means that we'll be up until 4 a.m. again.  He also says that Virginia and Colorado are the real "tipping points."  Silver runs 10,000 simulations based on the most current polling data and trends, and apparently Virginia agrees with the overall outcome in something like 48% of them, more than any other single state.  But if McCain pulls Pennsylvania out of his hat (which looks pretty unlikely right now, but is clearly his goal) that could alter the outcome.

Remember that these polls are all at least two days old, some of them five or six days old (and some of the very red and very blue states haven't had any polls in several weeks).  Remember, too, that Kerry looked like he was going to win in 2004, and that Gore did much better in 2000 than the polls predicted (but not better, ahem, than I predicted).  Lopsided as this map looks right now, things can change very fast.

An external event (the financial implosion of late September and afterward) pushed the polls heavily in Obama's direction.  Another external event (say, a terrorist attack or another Bin Laden video) could push them in McCain's direction.

On Saturday the spouse and I are dragging the Offspring Units to New Hampshire, where we will do some door-to-door canvassing for Obama.  My old viewers will remember that I flew to Florida in 2004 to do the same thing for Kerry.  NH is looking pretty good for Obama right now, but its polls over time have been something like an EKG and it's the closest thing to a swing state within day-trip distance. 

I intend to post another map on Monday night, with (ulp!) predictions to accompany it. That's so Jenny can make fun of me for getting it wrong again...
  • Another external event (say, a terrorist attack or another Bin Laden video) could push them in McCain's direction.

    Is there any credence at all, do you think, to the occasional rumours/myths that Bin Laden or others might try and interfere in the American election? Would a McCain administration be any better than an Obama presidency for the bad guys?

    My old viewers will remember that I flew to Florida in 2004 to do the same thing for Kerry.

    Wow, you take this seriously! Such dedication seems to be at odds with a country which has such poor voter attendance, sort of. Here in Australia voting is compulsory.

    Would you happen to know if there will be any web sites streaming coverage of the US election? I love watching elections here at home, and for the first time I'm somewhat interested in yours ...
    • As I mentioned to Berte, I believe that both CNN and CSPAN have streaming video. Their coverage should be pretty good. And if you can find a PBS affiliate that has streaming video, that'd be even better.

      The real fireworks in terms of news reporting will start at 8:0o p.m. Eastern (NYC) Time, because that's when the first group of polls close. Before that time the news agencies won't report on the results of their exit polls.

      As for Bin Laden -- I think I'll answer you offline, because my thinking is based on a lot of untested (therefore possibly false) assumptions, and I don't want to look like even a bigger fool than I do already.
    • I just recommended another source to Berte (see below) for watching the election online.

      Ken
  • Interesting. And go you all for working for change. *is impressed* I second madderbrad's question - is there a decent website that'll do streaming coverage of the election? While fully dressed? :-p
    • Both CNN and CSPAN have live streaming video on their Web sites. I think some local PBS television stations do too. They're all fully clothed. :P
    • I don't actually know whether Nate Silver is be fully dressed when he blogs, but he says he's going to maintain a live electoral map that will change as the information from the voting changes. it's on his site fivethirtyeight.com, and he says:

      We'll have new threads going up every 20 minutes or so covering every last detail of how we're seeing the evening unfold.

      Basically, the idea is that I'll have an electoral map updated in real time ... not just including those states that have officially been called by the networks, but also my informed opinion about how the rest of the states are going to be impacted by what we're learning in real time. More about this later on.

      Does that fit the bill?

      Edited at 2008-11-03 09:16 pm (UTC)
  • I have sisters that live in FL, GA & AZ ( a brother in NY but he always gets to be blue). I can't believe there is a chance I will be the only one in a red state come Wednesday am. Hope that I am but still hard to believe.
  • Huh? What's going on in Arizona? That might be fluke. I'm sure in the end, they'll give it to McCain. You just don't do something like that when your home state guy is running for office.

    Thanks so much for doing the cartogram. Yes, I like the new shape too.
    • Arizona is probably a fluke, yes. But remember that Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.
      • Oooh, that is awesome that you're going tomorrow! I hope it is awesome! Let me know what to expect for Tuesday -it sounds like I'll be in Dover! I was calling NH'ers at lunch and there was exciting enthusiasm in the Obama direction! Did I use enough exclamation points?! Hi to your family! Harry Potter themed costumes today?
        • Thanks, Karen. J dressed as Professor Sprout, and H dressed as an unidentified witch. I wore my King Richard's Faire costume (including the new cloak), and A dressed as a knight in armor.
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