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Rhetoretician -- Fiction etc.

Nate vs. Me

Nate vs. Me

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Phoenix Rising

Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, has just posted his own final projections for today's election.

He and I agree, except on two points: He thinks that Obama will win North Carolina and Florida; I think that McCain will win both of those states.

His predictions are probability-based, so he assigns partial EVs, so his "official" projection is 348.6 Electoral votes for Obama, whereas mine is 311. But if you simply add 15 (NC) and 27 (FL) to 311, you get 353, which is the second most frequent permutation in his calculations (311 is still the most frequent).

By tomorrow we'll know!

Don't forget to vote, if you haven't done so yet.
  • Still have not voted. I'm about to leave work and vote, though. Here in Maryland it's started to rain. It would usually keep the lines down, but this is such an important election, I doubt it will. So might end up in a line in the rain. Such fun...

    We'll see how McCain did in those states. I'm curious if he loses Arizona!
  • I voted early, back on October 22. Thank you for doing your projections, Ken, they've been an interesting addition to my compulsive election-watching. Erik and I are going to a watch party at the Alamo Draft House tonight, to watch the returns on the movie screen while eating decent food and drinking excellent beer.
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