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Rhetoretician -- Fiction etc.

Electoral Map of September 26th

Electoral Map of September 26th

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Four Elements
Since the debate is apparently on, and since it is likely to change the polls one way or the other, I thought I'd supply a pre-debate electoral map.

I'm a bit hampered because something's wrong with the way Zogby's posting its numbers.  It looks like they're using the old numbers with the new predictions (You know, saying "Obama is ahead" when their numbers show the opposite, or vice versa).  So this time I used the numbers on usaelectionpolls.com, which are from all over the place and therefore (in my view) less reliable.  But you use what you've got.

There's a lot more blue than there was ten days ago.  While McCain made gains in Kentucky, Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire, Obama made gains in at least ten states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which both seem to have flipped his way for now.

I'm guessing that this is at least partially due to the economic situation, since (as a general rule), the party not in the White House has the advantage during bad economic times, while the reverse is true in good economic times.  It makes a rough sort of sense, although It doesn't do much for me since I almost never base my vote on the economy.  Perhaps if the economic climate improves between now and November, so will McCain's numbers.

While this is a good showing for Obama, it's not a slam-dunk and we still have several weeks before the election.  A lot can change.  Tonight, I predict that something (dunno what) will change.
  • When I came home today, my husband said there was rumor going around that Biden will bow out and Hillary will come on board. I demanded to know if he heard that on TV (and not the internet) He claims he heard it on TV. *shrugs* Wishful thinking on my part, I guess.

    Well the debate is on anyway.

    Awk...the west is till the bedrock of being a Republican. Sigh...that will never change. You're right (in a good way, my to the left friend), there is a bit more blue. But the colors will change one way or the other and will end up as they were in the beginning (I bet).

    Bring up the map again after the debate "cackles"
    • Hi Rachel. Nah, it's an internet-based rumor about Hillary. ...and I say again, the vice presidential candidates are not really relevant to the election. They never are.

      I'll certainly do another map after the debate, although I'll probably wait a good 7-10 days after the last map, to give the polls time to adjust.

      I have made so many bad predictions (publicly) in recent presidential elections that I am leery of sticking my neck out and saying what will happen. I'm going to try to stick to analyzing what has happened and then keep my mouth shut. But if you're interested in some very sophisticated prognostications (so sophisticated that I can't follow all of them), take a look at Fivethirtyeight.com. Interesting stuff.

      Edited at 2008-09-27 03:16 am (UTC)
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